A tepid economic recovery, fear of Russian aggression, and the prospect of a Trump electoral victory in the U.S. are nudging Europe closer to China. Despite this, the markets seem unfazed by Israel-Iran, a Trump criminal trial, and continued inflation. It's STILL a Secular Bull.
0 CommentsComment on Facebook
Should investors worry? NO! Conflict in the Middle East has little fundamental effect on overall stock market performance in developed markets but can impact the price of commodities, particularly oil. Continued tensions may benefit oil stocks, while gold is also seen as a hedge.
0 CommentsComment on Facebook
The early market reaction to Iran’s attack on Israel over the weekend was a relief. While the assault was large and direct, traders were able to take some comfort from the fact that the more than 300 drones and rockets launched didn’t cause more damage or more casualties...;
0 CommentsComment on Facebook
The stock market closed with solid losses this week. Market participants had a lot to digest on this busy week regarding market-moving events. The downside bias was driven by a jump in market rates, a recalibration of rate-cut expectations, and increased geopolitical tensions.
0 CommentsComment on Facebook
Reports that Israel is bracing for an imminent attack by Iran sparked a scramble for safety across markets on Friday, inspiring traders to dump stocks in favor of Treasury bonds, gold and the U.S. dollar. The selloff was heightened as the Iranian attack seems immenient. Ughh…
0 CommentsComment on Facebook
Friday was ugly: small-cap stocks are “challenged” as Wall Street pushes out expectations for when the FED may begin lowering interest rates due to concerns over persistent inflation. Given little progress on inflation, I now expect the first Fed cut” in SEP or even DEC 2024...
0 CommentsComment on Facebook
X
;
A raft of economic data from the U.S. is scheduled for release this week. The Labor Department's closely watched employment report on Friday is anticipated to show nonfarm payrolls likely increased by 198k jobs in March, following a REVISED result of 275k jobs in FEB/. GOOD!!
The S&P 500 rose Thursday to cap off its best first-quarter performance since 2019. Broad stocks advanced 0.1%, notching its 22nd all-time high of the year. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added about 47 points, or 0.1%, also closing at a record. The Nasdaq Composite fell 0.1%.
Tthe Commerce Department reported the final estimate of the country’s gross domestic product for 4Q23. The economy grew by 3.2% in the reported quarter. GDP has surprised to the upside on several occasions. What's next for 2Q24??
Stocks had strong gains in March, with the S&P 500 and Russell 2000 ETFs both rising over 3% and 4% respectively. Energy and Materials sectors performed well, while the Nasdaq 100 underperformed amid a cool-down in the AI momentum trade. Gold reached a fresh all-time high. WOW!
All three major U.S. stock indexes closed higher on Wednesday as investors appeared to position for upcoming rate cuts this year by the Federal Reserve, pushing the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 toward their longest streak of monthly gains in years. The Secular Bull!
The Street continues to see a soft landing, although fewer professional fund managers feel that way compared to January. Meanwhile, the “no landing” camp is growing, which is probably better news for the stock market. "No landing" means neither recession nor non-recession...
Economists believe the Fed will delay on the first rate cut until SEP. My problem with that is it would be too close to the election, which means if the Fed doesn’t cut by the FOMC July meeting, they will HAVEwait until after the election. That’s my hunch at the moment. Yours?
3 weeks ago, the year-to-date performance numbers for the S&P 500 Equal Weight index and the S&P 500 market cap-based index were 2.48% and 6.69%, respectively, a difference of 4.21%. As of last Friday (below), those numbers are 3.81% and 7.28%, for a difference of 3.57%. GOOD!
Is there such a thing as a correction within a larger Bull Market? The Magnificent Seven year-to-date AVERAGE return is 13.8% versus the S&P 500 Index return of 7.6%. The market is experiencing bullish rotation, where lagging sectors and stocks are attracting investor interest.
